农业生产要素对湖南粮食产量影响的实证研究
摘 要：为探明湖南粮食产量增长与主要农业生产要素投入之间的关系，利用计量模型对1997～2015年湖南粮食产量增长与各主要投入要素的时间序列数据进行了分析。结果表明：化肥施用量和粮食种植面积对湖南粮食产量有一定的贡献，弹性系数分别为1.135 3和0.771 6，而农用塑料薄膜对湖南粮食产量有一定的负作用，弹性系数为-0.397 5，有效灌溉面积、农药使用量、农业机械总动力和第一产业从业人员数等4个要素的作用不够明显。提出了调整粮食种植面积、优化农业生产要素投入、推行绿色生产方式等促进湖南粮食生产的政策建议，增强农业可持续发展能力。
关键词：农业生产要素；粮食产量；生产弹性；湖南
中图分类号：F327 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1006-060X（2018）05-0092-04
An Empirical Study on the Influence of Agricultural Production Factors on Grain Output in Hunan
LIU Yuan-sheng， LUO Jian-bing， HE Ya
（Business School， Central South University of Forestry and Technology， Changsha 410004， PRC）
Abstract：In order to find out the relationship between the increase of grain output and the input of main agricultural production factors in Hunan， the econometric model was applied to analyze the grain output growth and the time series data of main input factors in Hunan from 1997 to 2015. The results showed that chemical fertilizer application and grain planting area contributed to grain yield in Hunan， the elastic coefficient was 1.135 3 and 0.771 6 respectively. While the agricultural plastic film had a negative effect on Hunan grain yield， and the elastic coefficient was -0.397 5. The effect of four factors was insufficient， such as effective irrigation area， pesticide use， total agricultural machinery power， and number of employees in the primary industry. The policy proposals for promoting grain production in Hunan were proposed， and the input of agricultural production factors was opt...
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